Prediction Ludicrosity

July 6, 2011

In retrospect to my last post, we in the past have many times intuitively attempted to apply the science of physics to the social sciences. The predictability of physics harbors the fact that once a particular phenomenon was understood, it made an enticing promise to the physicians who would turn their attention to social science. Their goals were to elucidate the statistical laws of underlying social phenomena to characterize the individual in a societal structure – as Quetelet did with the Gaussian distribution.

The question then arose, with enough mathematical ideas, one could susceptibly chart the many aspects of human behavior given rise to the notion of whether or not that freedom of choice for an individual was illusory. Even today, the application of physic theories to study social science is still based on the ridiculous erroneous impression that the approach would imply exact predictability of an individual’s behavior. The notion of predictability in any human endeavor is ludicrous. In fact I would go so far to argue that theories of mathematical ideas that are derived even from physics have no universal truth.

Our actions are irrational and we live in a random world. Our minds are not capable of dealing with the non-linearity of the real world. Yet we seek to find causality in all observations and adorn the people in blue suites who claim to know the GDP of a certain country for the next five years. These are my logical observations in an apparent false narrative filled world which I plan on to elaborate upon in a few essays.